New Delhi: India is set to become 3rd largest economy by 2029, an SBI report said on Saturday.
“India’s GDP growth in Q1FY23 was 13.5%. At this rate, India is likely to be the fastest growing economy in the current fiscal. Interestingly, even as estimates of India’s GDP growth rate for FY23 currently range from 6.7% to 7.7%, we firmly believe that it is immaterial. In a world that is ravaged by uncertainties, we believe 6% 6.5% growth is the new normal,” the report authored by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India said.
The report said India has undergone a large structural shift since 2014 and is now the 5th largest economy.
“Interestingly, India had surpassed UK as the 5th largest economy as early as December 2021 itself and not recently as is being claimed. The share of India’s GDP is now at 3.5%, as against 2.6% in 2014 and is likely to cross 4% in 2027, the current share of Germany in global GDP,” it said.
According to the report, the path taken by India since 2014 reveals India is likely to get the tag of 3rd largest economy in 2029, a movement of 7 places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked 10th.
India should surpass Germany in 2027 and most likely Japan by 2029 at the current rate of growth, the report said.
As per the report, in coming days India is likely to be the beneficiary as China slows down in terms of new investment intentions.
“Global tech major Apple’s recent decision to shift part production of its flagship iPhone 14 model for worldwide shipping from India, with a negligible time lag of a few weeks post its slated launch on September 7, bears testimony to such an optimism! The move by Apple, the most recognisable face of tech infused innovation in the last two centuries, that captures aspirations of an upwardly mobile population should open the flood gates for other major conglomerates to follow suit,” it said.
A broad-based growth of empowerment will also lift India’s per capita income from current levels and this could also as a force multiplier for a better tomorrow, the report said.
“At the beginning of 21st century, China embarked on an accelerated growth path occupying the second largest economy tag. We believe, with right policy perspective and realignment in global geopolitics our current estimates might even undergo an upward revision,” the report, however, added.